This Week’s Sales

Developer-led communities continue to transact smoothly, but will these prices hold on handover? Damac Hills 2 took the winning spot last week on sales transactions. Ready and Off plan waterfront apartments are quietly increasing on a per square foot basis. I will show you how below, by using one of my favourite areas - Jaddaf Waterfront.

Damac Islands 2

Absorption is strong, pricing is being controlled, will it stick?

Over the last two weeks, transaction volume in Damac Islands 2 won the top spot at 643 transactions (nearly 46 sales a day!), with deals ranging from AED 2,581,240 for a 4-bed townhouse up to AED 9,579,000 for a 5-bed villa.

Key point:

There is a strong concentration on the lower end despite the above range, sales averaged at AED 3,393,900, this is important considering AED 2.18 billion was recorded over the last 2 weeks.

That tells you everything.

This is developer-controlled pricing, targeting the affordable segment, not market pricing (all sales were initial developer sales, no resales yet due to new launch).

  • Prices averaged AED 1,293/sqft

  • Clear evidence of buyers paying premiums per square foot for orientation, plot, and size

  • Buyers are rushing to enter the townhouse market, especially at entries lower than the market average, which Damac Islands 2 offers

Off-plan stress check

No stress yet, but risk is forward dated as handovers approach:

  • Mortgage eligibility will replace payment plans

  • True end-user affordability will be tested

  • Competing villa/townhouse supply (Tilal Al Ghaf, Haven, DAMAC Lagoons spillover) will matter

TDA view — Damac Islands 2

  • Strong liquidity at off plan stage due to low entries, however judging by Damac Lagoons - any resales prior to handover (or proof of concept) will most likely be at a loss or break even.

  • Weak fundamentals for long term tenants due to small plot and BUA sizes (quality will be assessed on handover, however at this entry point some quality issues are expected)

  • Upside depends on market condition, not scarcity, therefore your safety as a buyer is low

This project is riding the market, not making it.

Jaddaf Waterfront

Premiums are not forming across Al Jaddaf — they are forming within it.
From the most recent week’s transactions:

Buildings / micro-clusters showing positive pricing behaviour:

  • Waterfront-facing blocks closest to Culture Village

  • Buildings with:

    • Direct creek orientation

    • Minimal road or podium obstruction

    • Larger, more usable 1-bed and 2-bed layouts

What this looks like in practice:

  • Buyers paying AED 2,500–3,000/sq ft for specific units

  • While nearby, non-waterfront or older stock struggles to clear above 1,800–2,100 AED/sq ft

That gap is widening.

This is not a “Jaddaf is expensive” story.
It’s a “specific buildings are becoming desirable” story.

Resale vs developer pricing — divergence is now visible
This week marks a subtle but important shift.

  • Developer-launched inventory in nearby off-plan projects is anchoring prices

  • But ready units with views and good layouts are transacting above some off plan units per square foot

This is the opposite of what happens at market tops.

Normally:

Off-plan trades at a premium and ready units lag

Here:

Specific ready units are leading, and off plan is anchoring the rest of the market

Why?

  • End-users want immediate occupancy, and Jaddaf is very well located

  • Waterfront adjacency is finite

  • Mortgage buyers are back in the market, especially with the influx of first-time home buyers (UAE resident scheme with subsidised fees)

This is classic early repricing behaviour, in ready assets.

Al Jaddaf is approaching a supply sorting phase.
Off-plan risk

  • New launches will struggle to justify premiums unless:

    • Waterfront-facing

    • Meaningfully differentiated

  • Commodity off-plan units will rely heavily on developer / government incentives

Ready stock risk

  • Older buildings without views or with compromised layouts are already seeing:

    • Longer marketing periods

    • Price resistance above AED 2,000/sq ft

What survives

  • Ready, view-led, well-sized apartments

  • Buildings that function as end-user housing, not rental-only stock

This Week’s Rentals

Commercial Rentals

This was a busy week for commercial rentals.

Across Dubai, 331 commercial rental contracts were registered over the last 2 weeks, generating AED 57.3m in total rent across roughly 628,000 sq ft of leased space. Average achieved rent sits at AED 213/sq ft, but that number masks very different realities by asset type.

The story last over the last 2 weeks was not “commercial is strong” — it’s “where tenants are still prepared to pay premiums, and where they aren’t”.

Offices & Retail — Liquidity Is There, Pricing Discipline Is Back

Offices and retail made up 84% of all rental contracts over the last few weeks:

  • Retail:

    • 140 contracts

    • AED 27.8m in rent

    • Avg rent: AED 336/sq ft

  • Office:

    • 138 contracts

    • AED 16.9m in rent

    • Avg rent: AED 117/sq ft

That gap matters.

Retail continues to command materially higher rents per sq ft, but the key signal is not the headline number — it’s tenant behaviour:

  • Retail tenants are still committing, but mostly in smaller, more efficient units

  • Office tenants are prioritising cost control over prestige, keeping rents capped despite solid volume of transactions

This is not volatility — it’s functional demand.

Rental Price Bands — Office tenants are mostly price sensitive

  • 0–50k AED: 23.0%

  • 50k–80k AED: 19.6%

  • 80k–120k AED: 17.8%

  • 120k–160k AED: 13.3%

  • 160k–200k AED: 7.6%

  • 200k+ AED: 18.7%

Nearly 60% of all leases sat below AED 120k, yet almost 1 in 5 leases cleared above AED 200k.

That bifurcation is important:

  • Smaller occupiers are dominating volume

  • Larger-ticket tenants still exist, but they are highly selective

It’s time to call out all of these brokers trying to make you buy an office as the rents will “shoot through the roof” - no one has a crystal ball! It is clear that the office rental market is price sensitive, and of course it should be, it’s a business decision.

I have always been a firm believer that Office buildings should be institutionally owned, it can get messy when they are sold piecemeal, who agrees and pays for the costs required to uplift the building in 10 years? If some owners disagree then what happens to the longevity and tenant mix of that building? Are current rents justifiable to pay over AED 4,000/p sq ft for a future unit - maybe in some cases, but not as a whole, therefore be careful!

Industrial, Warehouses & Specialised Assets — Quiet but Firm

While volumes are low, industrial-type assets are holding line:

  • Warehouses:

    • Avg rent: AED 50/sq ft

  • Factories:

    • Avg rent: AED 14/sq ft

  • Showrooms:

    • Avg rent: AED 180/sq ft

Area Concentration — Demand Is Narrowing, Not Broadening

The area mix shows commercial leasing activity clustering heavily in:

  • Deira

  • Business Bay

  • Al Quoz

  • JAFZA / industrial corridors

Secondary locations continue to transact, but demand is thin.

That matters for investors expecting:

  • Speculative upside in non-core locations

  • Long term tenants

TDA Read-Through

This was not a week of rental price growth — and that’s healthy.

  • Tenants are active

  • High pricing power exists, but only in functional, well-located assets

If you own:

  • Well-configured retail

  • Cost-efficient offices

  • Functional industrial stock

You’re fine.

If you’re relying on:

  • Non-prime location uplift

  • Speculative higher rents

  • Interest rate drops

This data is clearly telling you to re-check your assumptions.

Developers Shaping This Week’s Market

Emaar — Scale, Not Speculation

Emaar once again dominates on every meaningful metric:

  • No. of title deeds / Oqood: 1,236

  • Total sales value: AED 10.0bn

  • Average unit size: 3,600 sq ft

  • Average price: AED 8.1m

  • Average price / sq ft: AED 2,360

This is not volume chasing — it’s high-ticket capital absorption.

Emaar’s sales profile this period confirms:

  • End-user and HNWI demand is still intact

  • Large unit sizes are selling, not stalling

  • Buyers are comfortable committing real equity, not just booking entry tickets

❝


Emaar remains the market’s liquidity anchor — when uncertainty rises, capital still hides here.

DAMAC Properties — Flow, Not Price Leadership

DAMAC ranks second by volume and value, but the underlying profile is very different:

  • Total sales: AED 3.0bn

  • Average unit size: 2,100 sq ft

  • Average price: AED 2.85m

  • Average price / sq ft: AED 1,380

This is payment-plan driven liquidity, not scarcity pricing.

DAMAC’s strength this week:

  • Consistent absorption

  • Mid-market affordability

  • Broad buyer base

Its limitation:

  • Limited resale pricing tension

  • Incentives doing heavy lifting

DAMAC is keeping the market moving, but not resetting benchmarks.

Binghatti — Density Specialist, Not a Premium Story

Binghatti ranks high on transaction count but tells a different story on quality metrics:

  • Average unit size: 640 sq ft

  • Average price: AED 1.39m

  • Average price / sq ft: AED 2,150+

This is compact product at elevated prices per square foot, not luxury.

Key takeaway:

  • Buyers accept higher prices per square foot, only because ticket size stays manageable, and recent handovers have delivered reasonable results

  • Liquidity is strong, but resale sensitivity is higher (Trillionaire faced heavy investor losses even after handover)

  • Performance relies on entry affordability, not long-term pricing power

This is a volume-efficient model, not a defensive one.

Azizi — Entry-Level Capital, Tight Margins

Azizi’s data this period reinforces its positioning:

  • Average unit size: sub-600 sq ft

  • Average price: sub-AED 1m

  • Average price / sq ft: AED 1,650

Azizi captures:

  • First-time buyers

  • Budget-constrained investors

  • Yield-focused demand

But:

  • Upside is capped

  • Pricing is sensitive to supply

  • Little downside protection if sentiment softens

What This Actually Means

This week’s developer data splits the market into three clear buckets:

1. Capital Anchors

  • Emaar

  • Large units

  • High absolute prices

  • Buyers with patience and cash

2. Absorption Engines

  • DAMAC

  • Volume-led

  • Incentive-supported

  • Market riders

3. Liquidity Compressors

  • Binghatti / Azizi

  • Small units

  • High per square foot, low ticket size

  • Fast turnover, higher resale sensitivity

TDA Read-Through

If the market turns:

  • Emaar-type stock holds value

  • Mid-market developments hold little power, how many sellers will you be up against? and how many of those sellers will be distressed?

  • High-per square foot micro-units feel it first

This data quietly confirms something important:
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Dubai is no longer a one developer trade.
It’s a subjective choice based on several investor variables.

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